Russian Auto Market 2025 in Review and What‘s Next for Chinese Brands: From Export Windfall to Localization Deep-Dive

Core Data Russia Auto Market 2025

Total new passenger car sales: 1.326 million units, down 15.6% YoY

New car sales including LCV: 1.416 million units

Total vehicle market (incl. trucks, buses): 1.496 million units, down 18.5% YoY

Chinese Brands‘ Performance

Sales of Chinese brands in Russia: 685,000 units

Market share: 51.7% (down from 58.5% in 2024)

Brand leaders: Haval 173,000 units, Chery 99,800 units, Geely 94,000 units

Export volume from China to Russia: 632,341 units, down 42% YoY

EV Market in Russia

Total EV sales: 12,500 units, down 30% YoY

Top-selling brand: Zeekr, 3,005 units, 24% market share (down 61% from 2024)

Other Chinese players: Avatr (978 units), BYD (6.7% share), Xiaomi (5.6% share), Geely (3.7% share)

Early 2026 Signals

January–February exports to Russia: 108,392 units, +97.2% YoY

March 2026 Russian market sales: 104,278 units, +30.6% YoY

In-Depth Analysis 1. Why the decline? Policy-driven correction, not market collapse The 2025 downturn has clear causes. In January 2025, Russia raised import tariffs to 20-38%, tiered by customs value. In December, recycling fees surged—by 70-85% for certain engine classes, with annual indexation through 2030. These measures directly increased the cost of imported Chinese vehicles by an estimated 10-15%, compressing margins and cooling demand. At the same time, accumulated inventory in Russian warehouses had reached a historically high level of nearly 600,000 units by early 2025, triggering a necessary destocking cycle. 2. The underlying story: Structural upgrades are underway Yet the 2025 data masks a critical shift: Chinese brands are transitioning from simply shipping finished vehicles to building local production and sales ecosystems. Tenet, a Sino-Russian joint venture producing rebadged Chery models at the former Volkswagen plant in Kaluga, assembled 50,000 units by December 2025. Belgee, Geely‘s Belarus-based joint venture, and Changan’s production at Avtotor in Kaliningrad are also scaling. This is not a retreat from the market. It is a strategic upgrade from pure export to localized manufacturing—a move that reduces exposure to future tariff hikes and builds deeper supply chain integration. 3. The EV paradox: Small market, strategic beachhead Russia‘s EV market remains small—just 12,500 units in 2025—and contracted 30% year-on-year. Yet Chinese brands dominated the segment: Zeekr led with 3,005 units (24% share), Avatr sold 978 units (+42% growth), and BYD, Xiaomi, and Geely also gained traction. As the Russian government pursues electrification and cleaner energy, these early footholds position Chinese brands for long-term growth when the market matures. 4. The 2026 rebound: What it signals The early 2026 data suggests the correction is ending. January–February exports to Russia reached 108,392 units, nearly doubling year-on-year. March Russian market sales hit 104,278 units, up 30.6%—the first time in three months the market has exceeded 100,000 units. Seven Chinese brands ranked among Russia‘s top ten in March, collectively commanding over 43% of the market. This is not a return to the 2024 boom, but a reset to a more sustainable growth trajectory.

For automakers: The window for pure CBU exports to Russia is closing. Tariff barriers and localization requirements are rising. To secure long-term market access, local assembly or joint venture production is increasingly necessary. First movers in local production are already capturing advantages. For component suppliers: As Chinese automakers localize assembly in Russia, demand for locally warehoused or semi-knocked down (SKD) components will grow. Suppliers that establish local inventory or assembly partnerships will capture structural demand. For procurement decision-makers: When evaluating Chinese automotive suppliers for Russian market needs, prioritize those with established local logistics and aftermarket support. The shift from export to local production changes the risk profile—supply stability increasingly depends on local warehousing and compliance.

Russian tariffs and recycling fees effectively ended the era of pure CBU exports from China. How is your organization adapting—accelerating localization in Russia, diversifying to other markets, or adjusting pricing models to absorb the higher costs?

Hashtags：RussiaAutoMarket ChineseAutomakers Localization AutoExport EV SupplyChain Geely Haval Zeekr GNSGO